Sunday, April 01, 2007

World Ends: Third World Hardest Hit

New York Times:
Poor Nations to Bear Brunt as World Warms

Hmm. Let's see the assumptions you'd have to make to get here:
  1. There is a sustained global trend to rising temperatures (recently in the twentieth century scientists warned about the opposite).
  2. This global trend is in large part man-made (many climatologists the apparent warming may be a natural cyclical warming trend, swamping any anthogenic effects).
  3. Anthropogenic effects will be large (most credible models do have some increase in temperature due to increased levels CO2, but they vary widely on the net effect).
  4. Global warming will be injurious, rather than beneficial to humans (if someone proposed to create a machine that would lower global temperatures by 5 degrees, it's doubtful many would rush to turn it on. So do assume that the planet is right now at an optimal temperature for human life?)
So now the Times has extrapolated for us what will happen in the third world if global warming continues. Never mind that freezing CO2 production would doom developing economies which need rapid economic growth to lift them out of poverty. Something must be done to soothe the eco-pagan consciences of the editorialists who craft the front page of the Newspaper of Record.
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